A mere 60 days in the past that the young forward stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his displays were an indicator or the source for Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. After Rogers drilled in his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their opening six matches, find themselves just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
It remains a rather hard proposition to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team had an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a club which has just won a ten-match winning streak, they look strangely fragile – but at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping their star man to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again when facing the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. When the hero faced the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
